{"id":831,"date":"2026-11-08T15:37:12","date_gmt":"2026-11-08T15:37:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/engineersandeconomists.com\/?p=831"},"modified":"2026-11-08T15:38:12","modified_gmt":"2026-11-08T15:38:12","slug":"balkanization-of-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/engineersandeconomists.com\/index.php\/2026\/11\/08\/balkanization-of-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Balkanization of Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There has been an unprecedented amount of tension in the Middle East. Iran announced they were close to making a nuclear bomb at the start of 2026 and had already ejected nuclear inspectors from its territory. Even while they playacted the US on “curbing” their nuclear ambitions and refining Uranium 235 beyond what would be necessary for a civilian nuclear power plant, they continued to work on delivery mechanisms that would allow them to threaten Europe and Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Iran’s defense they feel that having nuclear capabilities will help defend themselves against outside powers looking to subjugate the country. Iran has been dominated by world powers for centuries. Britain and Russia divided the country up between themselves and Britain received a major oil concession from Iran in the early 1900s. Iran then nationalized its oil and gas industry in the 1950s shortly before the US and Britain overthrew the country removing the prime minister and solidifying the Shah’s political authority. The Shah did ruled Iran with an iron fist and much like the current Iranian regime, tolerated little dissent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the Shah was repressive to the general population and to the mullahs especially in order to eliminate any opposition, the leader also promoted the rights of women and forced through several laws to protect them. The country was fairly modern and liberal until the Iranian revolution in 1979 brought a new wave of repression. This time, the repression was driven by religious fervor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the Iranian revolution, Iran has been responsible for killing thousands of Americans in Lebanon, Iraq, and across the Middle East. It fired missiles at US bases while Biden was in office, directly supports Hamas’ constant attacks on Israel and supports Hizbollah’s terrorist activities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new leaders of Iran also supported the oppressive regime of the Syrian dictators in the al-Assad family until Turkish-backed militants overthrew the country. Following the overthrow of the al-Assad family, mass graves were discovered across Syria, illustrating the brutality of the regime that Iran had supported and the lengths to which Iran was willing to go to advance its ambitions across the Middle East. They also support the Houthi in Yemen which are currently attacking Saudi Arabia and have indicated they will continue attacking countries that hold American bases even if the countries show no sign of attacking Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While they are busy causing trouble across the Middle East, they are also close to developing nuclear weapons. If Iran was allowed to get a nuclear weapon it would cause tremendous upheaval. Iran was able to stop the flow of oil and gas out of the Middle East by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and by cutting off Saudi Arabia’s East\/West pipeline. This cause oil and gas prices to spike and diesel prices soar which soured Americans just in time for the midterm elections. They have even been attacking the countries that are trying to mediate between the US and Iran. Iran launched several attacks on Qatar and the UAE which is causing a rift with the GCC and Iran after they finally resolved to put aside their differences. Now Iran is telling countries that if they host American troops, their civilians are targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But imagine if Iran was given more power in the Middle East. Do you think they would just stop at funding terrorist? Would it even be our problem? I mean we are not the world’s policeman so who cares if Iran takes over the Middle East? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran would quickly take over the Middle East and topple Saudi Arabia, take Iraq or just install their own puppet, and create a Shia Crescent from Iran through Syria and link up with Hizbollah. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They wouldn’t stop there. Iran would block all oil and gas heading to the US and maybe even Europe if Europe does not give in to their demands. No one knows what those demands would be but it would probably be along the lines of “don’t do any business with the US or they would be cut off for any energy suppliers”. With Russia chomping at Eastern Europe and being a close ally with Iran, the two countries could hold the world’s energy prices hostage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Americans are worried about diesel prices today, a Middle East dominated by Iran would make America hark back to the oil embargo of the 1970s. There would be fuel lines across the country and Europe could potentially be cut off from the US leaving the US to stand alone on the world stage as its divided internally. This will leave the US weaker globally and will potentially cut off access to eastern Africa and possibly even India as Iran could use Yemen as a springboard to launch attacks on shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are several solutions to deal with Iran. One of the solutions is to put an economic embargo on the country. Trump has successfully blocked direct Iranian exports of crude from its territory. But is Iran just selling its oil through Iraq? The US is probably allowing or just turning a blind eye to Iranian exports through Iraq to China and the rest of the world. Trump has also launched Operational Economic Outcast which is an attempt to isolate the country from its neighbors. That would be in question as the Democrats appear sympathetic to the country and its allies even as Iran extols the virtues that make Democrats shudder. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump Administration, or at least Congress, could try economic bargaining. They tried this before with Iran and Iran not only kept trying to develop its nuclear weapons but also had time to develop its ballistic missile program. The Democrats are more sympathetic to the Iranian regime despite everything about its leadership so they may be able to make at least some progress. But Iran will not stop trying to take over the Middle East. They may go back to arming militants or trying to overthrow countries subtly but they will continue to try and take the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other option that I will talk about is the Balkanization of Iran. Many people remember the former Republic of Yugoslavia, which was led by Josip Broz Tito. He managed to balance competing world powers, ethnic groups across the Balkans, and the country’s economy. When he died, countries jockeyed for power and eventually split up with devastating results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first country to break away did so without much fanfare but when Croatia and especially Bosnia i Herzegovina tried to leave, there were unparalleled war crimes that even surpassed the tactics of Stalin, Mao Zedong or Nazi Germany. All that being said, if the different regions of Iran could be split away from the country under the protection of a larger power like the US, it may make it easier to deal with the country after those populations have been broken apart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Above is a demographic and population density map of Iran. While we all know that Iran is mainly Persian, many people don’t know how diverse the country actually is. The map above, made with ChatGPT, is a fair enough representation of Iran’s demographic map for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Balochi<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If the US or other Middle Eastern powers could put time and effort into it they could split off Sistan-Baluchestan and form its own country or combine the province with another country like Pakistan. As many people know the Baloch are a group of people that span southeast Iran, southwest Pakistan and even a sliver of Afghanistan. If they were allowed to form their own country we could easily split the country away from Iran and possibly Afghanistan. But that would anger Pakistan who would see it as a threat to their stranglehold over their province Balochistan. But the country would be easy to supply as its right on the Gulf of Oman and its ethnically homogeneous unlike Afghanistan or Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kurds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Recently a Kurdish woman was beaten to death for not covering up in 2022. This led to widespread protests for women’s rights followed by a vicious and sustained crackdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kurds, colored in green are in the northwest of the country. They have shown tremendous resistance to the Iranians and have even tried to break away from Iran in the 1940s when they formed the Republic of Mahabad. This was quickly quashed and they did try and kick up again after Saddam invaded Iran and ended up playing both sides. This didn’t work out for them either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kurds could be given a choice and be part of Turkey or Iraq and it might be a better solution for the Kurds than staying in Iran. I think it would be impractical for the Kurds to break away from Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran to form their own country but they could try and breakaway and become part of one country and represent a greater percentage of that country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Azeris<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The northern part of the country is comprised of three provinces, East and West Azerbaijan as well as Ardabil. These provinces are majority Azeris and would be the easiest part of Iran to split off from the rest of the country to form a larger Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is a small country in the Caucasus that was part of the Soviet Union. It has done a tremendous job developing its energy sector and is a main supplier of gas to Europe. They are also a friendly country with the US and enjoy good relations with major powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkmens<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Turkmens in the northeast part of Iran could be part of the secretive Turkmenistan. The country is infamous for its bizarre leaders but they have done a good job levying their MASSIVE natural gas reserves and now are one of the main suppliers of natural gas to China. I doubt they will jump at the chance to anger the rest of Iran but a case could be made for them to take the provinces in the northeast of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lur<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Lur are a nomadic people that share the same religion as the Persians. They may ultimately choose to remain part of Iran as they would be stuck between Iran and Iraq and would likely become a target for Iranians in the future because they would be critical to forming a Shia Crescent across the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iranian Arabs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Iran does have Arabs within its borders. These are mostly Shia and not Sunni, similar to Iraq. Saddam thought that he could turn them to fight against Iran this was a miscalculation which should not be made again. They would also likely choose to remain part of Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People of the Caspian Sea<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The small groups of people that live along the Caspian Sea are very diverse. There are several different people that live here but the main groups are the Gilaks and Mazandaranis. These would be hard to judge as there is not a lot of reliable information about these groups and its mainly dominated by Iranian state media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No Matter What the Choice Will Be Hard<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sitting back and letting Iran take over the Middle East will be catastrophic for both Iranians and for the US. A military solution would be as well. Iran is too large a country to make by force and the Iranian government has been preparing for this for decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also Balkanization produced tragic results in Bosnia i Herzegovina and parts of Croatia as the splintering of the former Republic of Yugoslavia created a war that lasted years and the war crimes were unimaginable before the breakup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet another reason why this would be a bad idea is that Iran has shown a religious fervor when attacked that has not been matched elsewhere in history. Iraq saw this first hand when Saddam attacked Iran. The Iranian military sent human wave attacks against Iraqi forces and overwhelmed them. The same would be true for American troops as well as they would deal with both assaults on their military from people and drones. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if the US does nothing there will still be the same amount of deaths in the Middle East. Iran will not be magnanimous when it takes over Saudi Arabia. When they take parts of Israel we will see the same war crimes as we saw during the October 7th attack in 2023 when Hamas was killing children and raping women as they spread across southern Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran will eventually come into conflict with a burgeoning Turkey and they will fight for the future of a potential revival of the Ottoman Empire that spans the Middle East. At least if America is involved we can help sway the decisions of these countries and protect our allies while protecting resources for the rest of the world. If the United States retreats from the Middle East, it risks surrendering its influence over one of the world’s most strategically important regions. Iranian influence could eventually spread beyond the Middle East into North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, creating an entirely new set of challenges for American foreign policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There has been an unprecedented amount of tension in the Middle East. Iran announced they were close to making a nuclear bomb at the start…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,5,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe","category-middle-east-africa","category-north-america"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t