October Nonfarm Payrolls came out today and employment smashed expectations. The market predicted the economy to add 65k while the BLS estimated only 40k jobs for the month. The US added 165k. The official unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% which was again below expectations. All this with the government only adding 6k compared with the private sector adding 159k. The government has shredded jobs over the past year and half and is starting to let the private sector take over the market again.

But the 165k gain is only an estimate based on employer surveys from 119,000 businesses and government agencies. The BLS reviews the previous year job reports and revises the number up or down based on actuals. They do this through comparing the estimates with actual unemployment insurance tax records from approximately all employers in the country. In March of the next year, they compare their estimates with actual payrolls.

Here are some of the revisions:

2022: +506k

2023: (187k)

2024: (598k)

2025: (861k)

2026: Est is (79k)

This means that each of the last three years they overestimated jobs by an embarrassing amount until the head of the BLS was dismissed. But if you believe it, the BLS estimates that the revision down will only be (79k) for 2026.

Open Jobs vs Official Unemployment Rate

Open jobs leapt by 333k in latest job report which indicates that companies are hiring new employees or at least looking for qualified employees. You read that correctly, the number of open jobs is rising again after several sectors like manufacturing, data centers, oil and gas and healthcare have been going crazy.

Companies cannot find qualified employees due to a “skills gap” and are unwilling to train new employees. The truth is that at least 5% of the population is not hirable and we are deporting skilled potential employees that are in the country illegally. Also I would love to interview the heads of companies but a lot of them are probably just looking for people that could show up to work on time.

Total employment jumped by 470k. This was the highest monthly gain since the government adjusted numbers due to the country adding 5 million new residents a year that came across the border. They did this at the very end of the Biden Administration.

Initial unemployment claims have fallen to the lowest since 1969, when the population was smaller. This is INSANE! This is not a metric for an economy that is about to collapse.

Continuing unemployment claims are dropping. The US has added 200k jobs in an already tight labor market since 2025.

Labor participation rate is the best since 2000 for people between the ages of 25 and 54, which is designed to take out the people who have retired. Though it’s hard to find a job when you are older (REAL hard), this metric might not be the best but its still pretty good. If the government wanted to hire people they should hire older Americans that have lost their job and are struggling to find new ones but too young to retire.

MY GOD Quits skyrocketed in October. Quits are a sign of confidence in the market as people jump from one company to another. This only happens when they feel that the economy will hold up once they are the “new guy” at the company and the last to get hired is the first to get fired when something goes wrong.

What more does the US want for the labor market? I realize it’s hard to find a job when you are older or your only experience is at a fast food restaurant. It’s also equally hard if you have a felony or even a DWI. But for the youngest Americans coming out of high school, this labor market is yearning for new hires.

I would be curious to learn what the average person in this country is looking for in a good economy or a great economy. I would assume that jobs would be the top of the list. Do they feel that the job market is terrible? Are employers not hiring?

Home affordability, which spun out of control during the pandemic, will naturally revert back to the median now that the country is shedding people and home builders are building like crazy. Those people that bought homes during the pandemic will likely be underwater for years unless more Americans buy second homes or investment homes. I feel bad for them as they are stuck. Especially if they have to move back to their old city and have to sell a home for a loss. But we just have to let the housing market pass though some tough times and we can get back to buying homes. Americans just need to be patient.

And while the average American is saying that the economy is not working for them, imagine what companies have to plan for over the next 5 or even 10 years. Now how many employers would be willing to take a chance on hiring new employees. Where will the new jobs be in the future?

Will manufacturing keep booming if we repeal the tariffs? Do you think the oil and gas industry will finally add employees now that the Democrats are in power? It would be ridiculous to assume that tech companies would add people when their stock prices have dropped by 30-50%. Healthcare, which has been booming, would be doing its current employees a disservice if they added new people at a time of Medicare for All will cap prices on healthcare.

These are the people you decide to kick out of office? I can’t make this stuff up.